A stochastic SEIRD ensemble model was calibrated to laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo virus (BDBV) cases in DR Congo (anchor: 598 confirmed cases on June 8, 2026, day 68) to project the 12-week outbreak trajectory and estimate cross-border importation probability for Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi.
Central scenario projected 990 cumulative confirmed DR Congo cases (90% PI 709–1293) and 174 deaths by week 12, with a central R₀ of 1.71. Importation probabilities: Uganda 94.2% (19 confirmed cases already), South Sudan 69.3%, Rwanda 8.6%, Burundi 2.0%. As of June 22, 2026, DR Congo had 1,048 confirmed cases and 267 deaths, consistent with the central scenario.
- Model uses scenario-based stochastic simulation rather than formal parameter fitting with identifiability analysis, limiting inferential precision. - Low contact-tracing rates introduce uncertainty in reported case counts used for calibration. - Early suspected-case series (peak 1,077) was substantially revised by lab reclassification and excluded from calibration, highlighting data quality challenges.
Uganda importation is already established; clinicians and public-health teams in Uganda, South Sudan, and neighboring countries should maintain heightened infection prevention and control, rapid diagnostic capacity, and health-worker protection — with particular attention to the 5 health-care worker infections already recorded in Uganda. South Sudan should urgently reinforce cross-border surveillance under IHR 2005.
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