A single-center prospective observational study of 63 consecutive patients (median age 26, 84% women) undergoing submental syringe liposuction developed a multiple linear regression model to predict aspirated volume (mL) from four outpatient-accessible preoperative measures: caliper-based skinfold thickness, vertical submental length, BMI, and palpation-based subcutaneous firmness (score 1–3).
The model achieved R²=0.610 (adjusted R²=0.569); prediction error was MAE 3.51 mL and RMSE 4.77 mL, with 79.4% of cases (50/63) falling within ±5 mL of actual aspirated volume (median 19.0 mL). The equation: aspirated volume (mL) = −7.36 + 0.79×skinfold (mm) + 0.31×vertical length (cm) + 0.89×BMI − 4.31×firmness.
- Single-center pilot with n=63 and no external validation cohort; bootstrap internal validation only. - Single surgeon performing all cases limits generalizability across operators and techniques. - Firmness scored by subjective palpation (1–3), introducing inter-rater variability.
Clinicians can use skinfold thickness, submental vertical length, BMI, and a simple firmness score—all measurable at consultation—to estimate submental liposuction yield within ~3–5 mL in most lean, young patients. Prospective external validation in a broader population is needed before routine adoption.
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